Publication Date

2016-07-21

Availability

Open access

Embargo Period

2016-07-21

Degree Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PHD)

Department

Accounting (Business)

Date of Defense

2016-06-07

First Committee Member

Peter Wysocki

Second Committee Member

Andrew Leone

Third Committee Member

Dhananjay Nanda

Fourth Committee Member

David Kelly

Abstract

This study uses election futures market data to provide the first empirical evidence that aggregate earnings conveys timely “election-relevant” information affecting voters’ preferences during U.S. presidential election campaigns. I document that aggregate earnings news is associated with multiple facets of U.S. economic health affecting voter utility. I then use novel high-frequency data from the Iowa Electronic Political Prediction Market to document that aggregate earnings news (and cash flow news in particular) is significantly related to the expected outcomes of U.S. presidential elections.

Keywords

aggregate earnings; expected earnings; decision relevance; United States presidential elections; political prediction markets

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