Authors

Mu-Chieh Ko

Document Type

Internship Report

Publication Date

Spring 2016

Abstract

The purpose of this project is to validate the capability of the basin-scale HWRF model to predict cyclogenesis events using the GFDL vortex tracker. To accomplish this, the data generated by the basin-scale HWRF for the 2015 hurricane season were used. Using the GFDL vortex tracker, the cyclogenesis forecast cases were detected and written in ATCF-format outputs. Then, a temporal post-processing filter was applied on those forecast events. Through comparing the HWRF cyclogenesis forecast outputs to the NHC Best-Track data, the cyclogenesis location errors were computed. The location bias helps to regroup the genesis results into three categories – “Hit”, “Miss”, and “False Alarm”. The HWRF cyclogenesis forecasts showed a significant increase on accuracy at day 3 from day 4 validation. Moreover, the function of the post-processing filter is discussed. The advantage of the filter is to increase the cyclogenesis output quality, although some right predictions may be removed. Overall, these analyses may allow further improvement upon current hurricane genesis forecasting abilities with the forecast guidance.

Comments

Department: ATM

MPS Track: WFC

Location: Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies

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