An Economic Analysis Of The United States Cotton Market, 1953-1972

Date of Award




Degree Name

Doctor of Arts (D.A.)




The econometric model developed in this study consists of five equations that together describe or represent the economic forces which determine domestic production, the farm price, domestic utilization during the marketing year for mill consumption, inventory, and export of cotton for the United States. The production block was estimated by the ordinary least-squares method, while the simultaneously determined demand block was estimated by the two-stage least-squares method. The system of equations was fitted to data for the years from 1953 to 1972. All signs of the estimated coefficients obtained were in accordance with the theoretical and logical expectations except for acreage allotment in productionship, current price ratio in consumption relationship, and support price to farm price ratio in inventory relationship. The estimated multiple coefficients of determinant of the five equations ranged from 0.70 in the export equation to 0.88 in the inventory equation.Before using the estimated model for making predictions, an analysis was done for testing the predictive performance of the model. The analysis indicated that the predictions of mill consumption, farm price and production had a smaller prediction error in terms of absolute or relative magnitudes than the predictions of exports and government inventory.


Economics, Theory

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